Losing in Miami is nothing new to the Patriots. Even the Tom Brady era was not immune to the semi-regular slip-up in South Beach.
In the past, it’s been reasonable to dismiss New England’s rough performances against the Dolphins as inexplicable outliers, and nothing more. The Patriots won a Super Bowl less than two months after the infamous “Miami Miracle” in 2018, after all.
However, there is no explaining away what happened Sunday evening at Hard Rock Stadium, where the Patriots closed out their regular season with an ugly 33-24 loss. The uncomfortable reality is that the game, in addition to being another example of New England struggling on the road against the Dolphins, saw the continuations of many concerning trends, some of which could doom Bill Belichick’s team in the NFL Playoffs.
Let’s examine the things that made Sunday’s loss not just another bad trip to Miami.
At what point are the Dolphins just better than the Patriots?
No, really. New England is 2-7 in its last nine trips to Miami, and Tua Tagovailoa — the Tua Tagovailoa — is 3-0 in his career against the Patriots. The Dolphins just swept New England for the first time since 2000. Brian Flores, who, for some reason, was fired Monday, leaves Miami with a 4-2 career record as a head coach against the Patriots.
When Tagovailoa fractured his ribs early in the season, we wrote that the injury could significantly impact the Patriots’ playoff outlook. Well, the Dolphins went 0-3 without Tagovailoa. Had they won one of those games, they would be in the playoffs over the Patriots.
New England’s run defense… no bueno
The Dolphins, one of the worst rushing teams in football, ran for 195 yards and one touchdown on 43 carries Sunday. There’s no excuse for that, especially when you consider how much money the Patriots invested into their defensive line last offseason. But the performance also wasn’t surprising.
Here’s how New England’s run defense finished the season:
Titans: 270 yards on 39 carries
Bills: 99 yards on 25 carries
Colts: 226 yards on 39 carries
Bills: 114 yards on 28 carries
Jaguars: 80 yards on 17 carries
Dolphins: 195 yards on 43 carries
And the pass rush isn’t much better
The injury to Christian Barmore (who reportedly might be OK) won’t help.
New England’s pass rush must get home to take the pressure off the secondary, which is limited without Stephon Gilmore and Jonathan Jones. During the Patriots’ seven-game win streak, the front seven wreaked havoc on opposing quarterbacks, with Matthew Judon leading the charge. But it was a different story in the final quarter of the season, as New England’s pass rush largely was non-existent. Judon generated just four quarterback pressures and zero sacks over his final four games.
The Patriots sacked Tagovailoa just once in Sunday’s game and, in general, did not do nearly enough to force an error-prone quarterback into big mistakes.
The Patriots can’t get off the field in a big spot
This has been a problem all season and is something we’ll write about later in the week.
Time and time again, the Patriots defense has failed to get big stops late in games when New England is leading or trailing by a slim margin. And it happened again Sunday when Tagovailoa put the game away with an 11-yard scramble late in the fourth quarter. Yes, Judon was held on the play, but he also rushed too far upfield and the Dolphins began the pivotal drive with a 15-yard completion to Durham Smythe.
The evidence is undeniable: When the game is on the line, the Patriots’ defense can’t get off the field.
You can avoid hyperbole and still say Mac Jones isn’t playing well
The rookie limped to the finish line in his first regular season, throwing five interceptions and losing one fumble over his last four games. If you take out the meaningless Week 17 performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Jones really hasn’t played well since the Week 12 win over the Tennessee Titans, and he wasn’t even that good in that game. In fact, if you factor in his iffy second half the previous week against the Atlanta Falcons, Jones hasn’t played at a consistently high level since the Week 10 blowout of the Cleveland Browns.
As for Sunday’s game, Jones threw a pick six and lost a fumble while completing 20 of 30 passes for 261 yards and a touchdown. He made some great plays in the second half, but he also was guilty of some killer mistakes.
Does any of this mean that Jones can’t turn it around in the playoffs? Of course not, as the Alabama product is talented and poised enough to play winning football in the postseason. But his late-season play was not inspiring.
Special teams mistakes are the new norm
What’s the deal here? The Patriots this season have made so many mistakes on special teams, from blocked punts to stupid penalties to botched extra points, that we didn’t have the energy to dig them up and list them. New England spends a lot of money on special teams, so the problems this season are inexcusable.
Cam Achord’s group struggled again Sunday, committing a costly — and controversial — penalty on the Dolphins’ fake-punt play, as well as a bad penalty that gave Miami a first down when it was prepared to punt the ball away. Oh, and Jake Bailey, who’s been bafflingly meh all season, had another bad punt. Every member of this group needs to be better, except Nick Folk.
Way too many penalties
The Patriots committed eight penalties for 78 yards against the Dolphins, giving them 95 for the season — ninth-fewest in the NFL. Last season, New England committed the fewest penalties in the league. In 2019, it committed the sixth-fewest. So, there was a clear regression this season, even if the Patriots didn’t generate as much laundry as the Dallas Cowboys (127 penalties).
The Patriots have a narrow path toward victory in the playoffs and simply can’t afford to shoot themselves in the foot with dumb penalties. They’re not good enough to overcome them.
(Really) slow starts
In their final three losses, the Patriots allowed Indianapolis, Buffalo and Miami to build a combined 57-7 lead. All of the aforementioned issues have contributed to New England’s slow starts, which killed the Patriots down the stretch. New England is good, but it’s not built to play from behind as currently constituted.
The Patriots allowed Miami to take a 17-0 lead Sunday afternoon, and they never fully recovered.
The Patriots now are a team that plays not to lose
This earlyseason issue went dormant for a while but reemerged after the winning streak. Perhaps due to a lack of confidence in Jones and the passing game, Belichick clearly isn’t comfortable with forcing the issue in certain situations. The Patriots rarely attempted double-scores during the regular season and ranked near the bottom of the league in fourth-down attempts.
The league has caught up to the Patriots. Teams no longer see Belichick on the opposite sideline and vomit all over themselves. So, New England must be aggressive in playing to win, rather than to not lose.
That thing that happened at the end of the first half in Miami? Whatever it was, it can’t happen again.
So much for “playing your best football after Thanksgiving”
One of the many hallmarks of the Brady years was New England playing its best football at the end of the season. While other teams were fading, the Patriots were surging. Well, those days are over.
Over the last three seasons, the Patriots are 6-10 in games after Dec. 1. Since winning Super Bowl LIII, they have been a losing team in the winter months.
