We reached a pivotal point Wednesday, as the Red Sox officially signed Trevor Story to a six-year contract and subsequently made their first round of spring training roster cuts.
Now, a couple of days later, Opening Day is less than two weeks away, and Boston’s roster (as well as its lineup and rotation) is beginning to take shape — albeit with a few lingering questions.
So, who will break camp with the major league club?
One important note: Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association reportedly reached a tentative agreement to expand rosters from 26 to 28 players through May 1, an effort to combat such a short ramp-up after the MLB lockout.
The truncated spring training has the potential to affect everyone but it could be especially troublesome for starting pitchers trying to stretch out ahead of the 2022 season. And thus it’s likely the 13-pitcher limit — a rule passed before the 2020 campaign but ultimately suspended the past two years under COVID-19 pandemic protocols — won’t be implemented until May 2 at the earliest.
A lot of teams probably will use the two extra roster spots to carry a couple of hurlers they otherwise wouldn’t to open the season. The Red Sox could follow suit with Chris Sale sidelined with a stress fracture in his ribcage, James Paxton out until midseason while recovering from Tommy John surgery and Josh Taylor dealing with a back issue that’s threatening to push back his 2022 debut.
Also worth keeping in mind: Boston is dealing with a 40-man roster crunch, which could play a role in the team’s decision-making, and there’s still time for the Red Sox, among others, to make moves before Opening Day, whether it’s via free agency or trades.
Without further ado, here’s our latest projection for what the Red Sox roster will look like to begin the season April 7, again keeping in mind the aforementioned injuries. (Sale, Paxton and Taylor all would be roster locks if fully healthy.)
Catchers (2): Christian Vázquez, Kevin Plawecki
This is fairly straightforward. And the Red Sox actually are well-positioned to overcome any potential hiccups, related to injuries or otherwise, because they also have both Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernández on the 40-man roster and waiting in the wings at Triple-A Worcester.
Infielders (6): Bobby Dalbec, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Christian Arroyo, Travis Shaw
Story, who played shortstop throughout his six-year tenure with the Colorado Rockies, will shift to second base, with Bogaerts manning his usual position up the middle. Dalbec and Devers will hold down the corners on a consistent basis, although the latter obviously comes with greater certainty.
Dalbec finished strong down the stretch in 2021 before going 0-for-12 with five strikeouts in the postseason, and any prolonged slump will intensify the debate over whether Boston should promote top prospect Triston Casas. That conversation might pick up sooner rather than later if Casas performs well to begin the season at Worcester, and Dalbec proves capable at second base and/or in the outfield during camp, thereby giving Red Sox manager Alex Cora some extra versatility with which to work.
Arroyo seemingly was bumped out of a starting role with Story’s arrival, but he’ll remain a valuable asset over the course of a 162-game season. He, too, might broaden his horizons by adding the outfield to his repertoire. For now, he’ll serve as a utility infielder.
Perhaps the most-notable of this group, then, is Shaw, whose presence would require a little roster maintenance. Shaw, a non-roster invitee, isn’t on the Red Sox’s 40-man, and they’d therefore need to open a spot — something that’s easier said than done. But Shaw, a respected veteran with ample experience at both corner-infield spots, is a good fit, primarily as a left-handed complement to Dalbec at first base.
Outfielders (4): Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, Jackie Bradley Jr., Rob Refsnyder
OK, this one’s a little tricky. Verdugo, Hernández and Bradley are penciled in as the starters, from left to right. Bradley, acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers for Hunter Renfroe just before the lockout, is coming off a disappointing season at the dish, however, and leaning on him to play every day therefore represents a roll of the dice despite his well-documented defensive prowess.
Even if the Red Sox are confident Bradley’s return to Boston will coincide with improved offensive results, they still have a glaring need for a right-handed-hitting outfielder. The optimal alignment would involve JBJ, a left-handed hitter, and the newcomer splitting time — the former playing against righties and the latter playing against southpaws — while Verdugo and Hernández start nearly every day.
Cora said Thursday that J.D. Martinez could see significant action in the outfield when the Red Sox face right-handers. An OK backup plan, sure, but far from ideal. Martinez wore down last season, and the Red Sox should do whatever it takes to ensure he’s confined mostly to designated-hitter duties.
Jarren Duran, a highly regarded prospect who debuted with Boston last season, theoretically might serve as the Red Sox’s fourth outfielder to begin 2022. But that, too, is suboptimal. He’s a left-handed bat, creating some unnecessary redundancy, and the 25-year-old would be best served playing every day — whether it’s in Boston or Worcester — so as not to stunt his development.
All told, Boston should look outside the organization for help in this area. The problem is the market appears relatively thin, making it difficult to find a match in free agency or via trade. It’s hard to envision the Red Sox swinging for the fences by poking around on Bryan Reynolds of the Pittsburgh Pirates or Ramón Laureano of the Oakland Athletics, and the idea of “buying” a prospect from the San Diego Padres in exchange for absorbing Wil Myers’ contract, while intriguing, has been kicking around for too long to think it’s suddenly going to come to fruition before Opening Day.
Which brings us to Refsnyder, a right-handed hitter capable of playing all three outfield spots. He’s not a huge name, obviously, and the Red Sox would need to clear space on the 40-man, as he’s currently in camp as a non-roster invitee. But he hit lefties well last season, slashing .304/.391/.393 in 64 plate appearances, and carrying him as the fourth outfielder beats the internal alternatives.
Designated hitter (1): J.D. Martinez
Martinez might factor into Boston’s outfield mix, as Cora explained Thursday, but again, the Red Sox’s best-case scenario is him working almost exclusively as the DH in 2022.
Starting rotation (5): Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill
Eovaldi and Pivetta are locks, with the former receiving the nod for Opening Day against the New York Yankees in wake of Sale’s injury. And the current plan calls for Houck and Wacha to begin the season in the rotation, leaving one open spot, should the Red Sox deploy a traditional five-man unit.
Garrett Whitlock is being stretched out this spring, and it’s possible the Red Sox eventually shift gears and groom him as a starter. But Hill is the more proven commodity, and removing Whitlock from the bullpen at this point more or less is robbing Peter to pay Paul.
Bullpen (10): Matt Barnes, Garrett Whitlock, Jake Diekman, Matt Strahm, Ryan Brasier, Hirokazu Sawamura, Darwinzon Hernandez, Austin Davis, Derek Holland, Hansel Robles
The last couple of spots are up for grabs. Let’s roll with Holland and Robles.
Holland, a left-hander, is capable of going multiple innings, a valuable trait if starters are dealing with early workload restrictions after the condensed spring training. Robles, a right-hander, showed enough in 2021 that the Red Sox brought him back into the fold for 2022.
The Red Sox would have Robles, Barnes, Whitlock, Brasier and Sawamura as right-handers, and Diekman, Strahm, Hernandez, Davis and Holland as left-handers. Five and five. Good balance.
The difficulty lies in creating 40-man roster space for those two non-roster invitees, a hurdle that ultimately could keep both or either from breaking camp with Boston. If so, the alternatives currently on the 40-man include Phillips Valdez, Ralph Garza Jr. and Eduard Bazardo. Valdez and Garza seemingly are candidates to be designated for assignment — the latter probably moreso than the former — and Bazardo probably could use a little more seasoning before assuming a full-time role in the majors.
It’ll also be fascinating to see how Cora uses whatever collection of bullpen arms the Red Sox settle on, as they are without a definitive closer, can be flexible with Whitlock and still are learning where newcomers Diekman and Strahm best fit.
In totality, this roster projection requires adding four players to the 40-man: Shaw, Refsnyder, Holland Robles. It’s complicated, without factoring in trades and/or free agent signings, but one avenue to accomplish such involves DFA’ing Valdez, Garza and Jonathan Araúz while moving Bryan Mata to the 60-man injured list as he continues his recovery from Tommy John surgery.
